CEE MARKETS-Forint, crown edge down with rate meetings in focus
By Jason Hovet
PRAGUE, March 27 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint and
Czech crown edged down on Monday, as markets turned to central
bank meetings due this week to gauge how quickly policymakers
may begin interest rate cuts this year.
The forint had eased 0.2% by 0825 GMT to sit at
386.0 to the euro, stuck in a range it settled into last week
after volatility caused by Credit Suisse being taken over by its
Swiss banking rival UBS, along with the implosion of the U.S.
Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).
With worries persisting over the global banking system,
trading in central Europe remained choppy. Stock markets rose in
mixed trade, seeking a return to firming paths.
On the currency front, attention was turned to Tuesday's
Hungarian central bank meeting, with pressure still coming from
the government to cut what is the European Union's highest
policy interest rate at 13%.
"The Hungarian central bank meeting will get the most
attention, as markets are waiting for any indication on interest
rate normalization," Erste Group Bank said.
"Recent market turmoil and the vulnerability of the
Hungarian forint in the aftermath of the troubles of the U.S.
SVB bank as well as Credit Suisse bank may, however, delay the
beginning of interest rate normalization."
Global central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve must now
balance concerns over still-high inflation with worry over
economies amid potential banking stress.
That could mean steadier interest rates in central Europe,
where policymakers have held steady on policy since last year
following hiking cycles that started sooner than global peers.
Analysts in a Reuters poll pared back rate cut views in both
Hungary and the Czech Republic.
Hungarian rate-setter nominee Eva Buza on Monday said
curbing inflation - which has soared to above 20% - as soon as
possible was in the national interest.
In Czech markets, the crown inched down a touch to
23.715 to the euro before Wednesday's rate meeting, where rates
will likely stay on hold as in Hungary.
The Polish zloty edged 0.1% higher to 4.688 per
euro.
The Polish currency has missed out on gains seen by the
forint and crown so far this year. Bank of America on Monday
recommended a short zloty position against the forint due to
Hungary's improving current account and falling gas prices.
"The zloty remains unattractive for short-term investors who
still prefer to take positions in other CEE currencies," ING
said, adding weakening Polish economic data this week could
support some expectations of rate cuts coming.
CEE SNAPSHO AT
MARKETS T 1025
CET
CURRENC
IES
Latest Previou Daily Change
s
bid close change in 2023
EURCZK Czech EURHUF Hungary 0 0
EURPLN Polish EURRON Romanian EURHRK Croatian EURRSD Serbian 0 0
Note: calculated from 1800
daily CET
change
Latest Previou Daily Change
s
close change in 2023
.PX Prague 1296.31 1290.65 +0.44% +7.87%
00
.BUX Budapest 42170.5 41818.9 +0.84% -3.71%
6 2
.WIG20 Warsaw .BETI Buchares 12055.4 11989.9 +0.55% +3.36%
t 4 0
.SBITO Ljubljan %
.BELEX Belgrade .SOFIX Sofia Yield Yield Spread Daily
(bid) change vs Bund change
in
Czech spread
Republic
CZ2YT= 2-year s
CZ5YT= 5-year s
CZ10YT s
Poland
PL2YT= 2-year s
PL5YT= 5-year s
PL10YT s
FORWARD
3x6 6x9 9x12 3M
interba
nk
Czech Hungary Poland Note: are for ask
FRA prices
quotes
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(Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Krisztina Than in
Budapest, and Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by Varun H K)