TrueCar Forecasts Third Consecutive Month of Slowing Vehicle Sales for July 2021

SANTA MONICA, Calif., July 29, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (TRUE) , the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,292,064 units in July 2021, up just 1% from a year ago but down 8% vs. June 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 14.7 million, staying on par with July 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,171,277 units, about even with a year ago and a decrease of 7% from June 2021

"Increasing pressure on new car inventory continues to drive the car buying landscape in July. Lower inventory is likely creating a drag on sales and driving up transaction prices. It is also leading to more would-be new car buyers opting for used cars, which in turn is contributing to the surge in used car prices," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar (TRUE). "However, there are still deals out there, and TrueCar (TRUE) is a great way to navigate the current landscape and cast a wider net to find those deals," added Woolard.

"In July we expect to see things continue to cool since the recent new vehicle sales peak in April. Despite cooling from recent months, many brands still show improvement compared to 2020. Volkswagen in particular is looking strong in July, propelled in part by the all-new Taos and ID.4 which are resonating well with buyers," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar (TRUE).

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar (TRUE)):

  • Total sales for July 2021 are expected to be up 1% from a year ago and down 8% from June 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for July 2021 are expected to be up 16% from a year ago and down 14% from June 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Incentive spend is down 36% from last year.
  • Average transaction price is projected to be up 5% from a year ago and up .2% from June 2021.
  • Total SAAR is expected to remain about the same from a year ago at 14.7 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for July 2021 are expected to reach 3.7 million, down 4% from a year ago and about even with June 2021.
  • The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.5% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.5%.
  • The average loan term on a new vehicle for July 2021 is 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is 69 months.

 

Total Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Jul 2021 Forecast

Jul 2020 Actual

Jun 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change 
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

33,969

22,711

34,872

49.6%

44.0%

-2.6%

-9.8%

Daimler

24,576

26,850

24,347

-8.5%

-11.9%

0.9%

-6.5%

Ford

116,502

174,978

114,677

-33.4%

-35.9%

1.6%

-5.9%

GM

202,932

204,756

204,782

-0.9%

-4.6%

-0.9%

-8.2%

Honda

151,587

125,450

153,122

20.8%

16.4%

-1.0%

-8.3%

Hyundai

78,226

58,934

76,519

32.7%

27.8%

2.2%

-5.3%

Kia

68,358

52,479

68,486

30.3%

25.4%

-0.2%

-7.6%

Nissan

76,230

73,463

88,642

3.8%

-0.1%

-14.0%

-20.4%

Stellantis

140,068

157,025

136,334

-10.8%

-14.1%

2.7%

-4.9%

Subaru

45,685

51,458

42,877

-11.2%

-14.5%

6.5%

-1.3%

Tesla

23,734

15,800

22,869

50.2%

44.7%

3.8%

-3.9%

Toyota

206,520

168,791

209,721

22.4%

17.8%

-1.5%

-8.8%

Volkswagen Group

60,973

47,724

61,251

27.8%

23.0%

-0.5%

-7.8%

Industry

1,292,064

1,227,420

1,300,873

5.3%

1.4%

-0.7%

-8.0%

 

Retail Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Jul 2021 Forecast

Jul 2020 Actual

Jun 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

33,404

22,341

34,276

49.5%

44.0%

-2.5%

-9.8%

Daimler

23,530

26,166

23,849

-10.1%

-13.4%

-1.3%

-8.6%

Ford

86,019

138,872

93,140

-38.1%

-40.4%

-7.6%

-14.5%

GM

173,961

183,945

178,935

-5.4%

-8.9%

-2.8%

-10.0%

Honda

149,962

124,387

152,480

20.6%

16.1%

-1.7%

-8.9%

Hyundai

72,518

57,530

70,650

26.1%

21.4%

2.6%

-5.0%

Kia

63,128

51,326

65,938

23.0%

18.4%

-4.3%

-11.4%

Nissan

67,581

66,400

73,163

1.8%

-2.0%

-7.6%

-14.5%

Stellantis

130,497

136,782

114,221

-4.6%

-8.1%

14.2%

5.8%

Subaru

44,840

50,436

41,278

-11.1%

-14.4%

8.6%

0.6%

Tesla

23,569

15,800

22,861

49.2%

43.6%

3.1%

-4.5%

Toyota

187,140

163,509

185,259

14.5%

10.2%

1.0%

-6.5%

Volkswagen Group

60,184

47,208

60,350

27.5%

22.8%

-0.3%

-7.7%

Industry

1,171,277

1,127,219

1,170,134

3.9%

0.1%

0.1%

-7.3%

 

Fleet Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Jul 2021 Forecast

Jul 2020 Actual

Jun 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

565

370

596

52.9%

47.2%

-5.2%

-12.3%

Daimler

1,046

684

498

52.9%

47.2%

110.0%

94.5%

Ford

30,483

36,106

21,537

-15.6%

-18.7%

41.5%

31.1%

GM

28,971

20,811

25,847

39.2%

34.1%

12.1%

3.8%

Honda

1,625

1,063

642

52.9%

47.2%

153.0%

134.2%

Hyundai

5,708

1,404

5,869

306.6%

291.5%

-2.7%

-10.0%

Kia

5,230

1,153

2,548

353.6%

336.8%

105.3%

90.1%

Nissan

8,649

7,063

15,479

22.5%

17.9%

-44.1%

-48.3%

Stellantis

9,571

20,243

22,113

-52.7%

-54.5%

-56.7%

-59.9%

Subaru

845

1,022

1,599

-17.3%

-20.4%

-47.1%

-51.1%

Tesla

165

-

8



2016.2%

1859.5%

Toyota

19,380

5,282

24,462

266.9%

253.3%

-20.8%

-26.6%

Volkswagen Group

789

516

901

52.9%

47.2%

-12.4%

-18.9%

Industry

120,787

100,201

130,739

20.5%

16.1%

-7.6%

-14.5%

 

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer

Jul 2021 Forecast

Jul 2020 Actual

Jun 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

MoM % Change

BMW

1.7%

1.6%

1.7%

2.2%

-2.7%

Daimler

4.3%

2.5%

2.0%

67.0%

108.1%

Ford

26.2%

20.6%

18.8%

26.8%

39.3%

GM

14.3%

10.2%

12.6%

40.5%

13.1%

Honda

1.1%

0.8%

0.4%

26.5%

155.5%

Hyundai

7.3%

2.4%

7.7%

206.3%

-4.9%

Kia

7.7%

2.2%

3.7%

248.3%

105.7%

Nissan

11.3%

9.6%

17.5%

18.0%

-35.0%

Stellantis

6.8%

12.9%

16.2%

-47.0%

-57.9%

Subaru

1.8%

2.0%

3.7%

-6.9%

-50.4%

Tesla

0.7%

0.0%

0.0%


1939.1%

Toyota

9.4%

3.1%

11.7%

199.9%

-19.5%

Volkswagen Group

1.3%

1.1%

1.5%

19.6%

-12.1%

Industry

9.3%

8.2%

10.1%

14.5%

-7.0%

 

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

Jul 2021 Forecast

Jul 2020 Actual

Jun 2021 Actual

BMW

2.6%

1.9%

2.7%

Daimler

1.9%

2.2%

1.9%

Ford

9.0%

14.3%

8.8%

GM

15.7%

16.7%

15.7%

Honda

11.7%

10.2%

11.8%

Hyundai

6.1%

4.8%

5.9%

Kia

5.3%

4.3%

5.3%

Nissan

5.9%

6.0%

6.8%

Stellantis

10.8%

12.8%

10.5%

Subaru

3.5%

4.2%

3.3%

Tesla

1.8%

1.3%

1.8%

Toyota

16.0%

13.8%

16.1%

Volkswagen Group

4.7%

3.9%

4.7%


95.1%

96.2%

95.2%

 

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer

Jul 2021 Forecast

Jul 2020 Actual

Jun 2021 Actual

BMW

2.9%

2.0%

2.9%

Daimler

2.0%

2.3%

2.0%

Ford

7.3%

12.3%

8.0%

GM

14.9%

16.3%

15.3%

Honda

12.8%

11.0%

13.0%

Hyundai

6.2%

5.1%

6.0%

Kia

5.4%

4.6%

5.6%

Nissan

5.8%

5.9%

6.3%

Stellantis

11.1%

12.1%

9.8%

Subaru

3.8%

4.5%

3.5%

Tesla

2.0%

1.4%

2.0%

Toyota

16.0%

14.5%

15.8%

Volkswagen Group

5.1%

4.2%

5.2%


95.3%

96.2%

95.4%

 

ATP



Manufacturer

Jul 2021 Forecast

Jul 2020 Actual

Jun 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$57,024

$58,212

$58,570

-2.0%

-2.6%

Daimler

$56,048

$60,586

$56,585

-7.5%

-0.9%

Ford

$46,626

$43,304

$44,561

7.7%

4.6%

GM

$44,749

$41,068

$44,408

9.0%

0.8%

Honda

$31,149

$30,058

$31,075

3.6%

0.2%

Hyundai

$31,074

$28,808

$30,333

7.9%

2.4%

Kia

$28,085

$24,887

$27,783

12.9%

1.1%

Nissan

$31,258

$28,435

$30,945

9.9%

1.0%

Stellantis

$47,943

$42,206

$47,412

13.6%

1.1%

Subaru

$31,276

$30,292

$31,887

3.2%

-1.9%

Toyota

$35,264

$34,012

$35,398

3.7%

-0.4%

Volkswagen Group

$41,614

$40,186

$42,050

3.6%

-1.0%

Industry

$38,188

$36,432

$38,097

4.8%

0.2%

 

Incentives



Manufacturer

Jul 2021 Forecast

Jul 2020 Actual

Jun 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$4,269

$5,479

$4,452

-22.1%

-4.1%

Daimler

$3,226

$5,560

$3,280

-42.0%

-1.6%

Ford

$2,251

$4,075

$2,479

-44.8%

-9.2%

GM

$3,336

$5,561

$4,023

-40.0%

-17.1%

Honda

$1,985

$2,661

$2,096

-25.4%

-5.3%

Hyundai

$1,720

$2,442

$1,884

-29.6%

-8.7%

Kia

$2,265

$3,711

$2,603

-39.0%

-13.0%

Nissan

$3,112

$4,556

$3,025

-31.7%

2.8%

Stellantis

$2,827

$4,763

$2,812

-40.6%

0.6%

Subaru

$1,345

$1,855

$1,395

-27.5%

-3.6%

Toyota

$1,882

$2,733

$1,916

-31.1%

-1.8%

Volkswagen Group

$3,381

$4,508

$3,421

-25.0%

-1.2%

Industry

$2,529

$3,986

$2,732

-36.5%

-7.4%

 

Incentives as % of ATP



Manufacturer

Jul 2021 Forecast

Jul 2020 Actual

Jun 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

7.5%

9.4%

7.6%

-20.5%

-1.5%

Daimler

5.8%

9.2%

5.8%

-37.3%

-0.7%

Ford

4.8%

9.4%

5.6%

-48.7%

-13.2%

GM

7.5%

13.5%

9.1%

-44.9%

-17.7%

Honda

6.4%

8.9%

6.7%

-28.0%

-5.5%

Hyundai

5.5%

8.5%

6.2%

-34.7%

-10.9%

Kia

8.1%

14.9%

9.4%

-45.9%

-13.9%

Nissan

10.0%

16.0%

9.8%

-37.9%

1.8%

Stellantis

5.9%

11.3%

5.9%

-47.7%

-0.6%

Subaru

4.3%

6.1%

4.4%

-29.8%

-1.7%

Toyota

5.3%

8.0%

5.4%

-33.6%

-1.4%

Volkswagen Group

8.1%

11.2%

8.1%

-27.6%

-0.1%

Industry

6.6%

10.9%

7.2%

-39.5%

-7.6%

 

Revenue



Manufacturer

Jul 2021 Forecast

Jul 2020 Actual

Jun 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM

Industry

$49,341,554,560

$44,717,708,837

$49,559,399,807

10.3%

-0.4%

 (Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s (TRUE) analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s (TRUE) operations.)

About TrueCar (TRUE)

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar (TRUE) powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. 

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SOURCE TrueCar, Inc. (TRUE)

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