TrueCar Forecasts Fourth Consecutive Month of Slowing Vehicle Sales for August 2021

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Aug. 26, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. , the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,212,399 units in August 2021, down 4% from a year ago but up 1% vs. July 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 14.4 million, down 4% from August 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,077,701 units, down 7% from a year ago and about even with July 2021.

TrueCar, Inc. Logo

"The chip shortage continues to be the driving force behind vehicle availability, creating the lowest average incentive spending since 20131," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar (TRUE). "Continued strong demand is creating an environment where vehicles are selling extremely quickly. About a third of vehicles are selling within a week of arriving on the dealer lot, compared to just 18% last year," added Woolard. 

"Though new vehicle sales continue to decline in August, some brands saw a year-over-year increase in sales. Toyota is operating extremely well considering their inventory days' supply is roughly half the industry average. We will continue to see how they perform once their announced plant closures put additional pressure on production and inventory," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar (TRUE).

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar (TRUE)):

  • Total sales for August 2021 are expected to be down 4% from a year ago and up 1% from July 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for August 2021 are expected to be up 30% from a year ago and up 9% from July 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Incentive spend is down 39% from last year.
  • Average transaction price is projected to be up 6% from a year ago and up .5% from July 2021.
  • Total SAAR is expected to be down 4% from a year ago at 14.4 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for August 2021 are expected to reach 3.7 million, up 6% from a year ago and about even with July 2021
  • The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.6% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.4%.
  • The average loan term on a new vehicle for August 2021 is 70 months and likewise the average loan term on a used vehicle is also 70 months.

 

Total Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Aug 2021 Forecast

Aug 2020 Actual

Jul 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

29,416

25,235

28,845

16.6%

21.2%

2.0%

10.1%

Daimler

22,840

23,966

24,977

-4.7%

-0.9%

-8.6%

-1.2%

Ford

122,166

184,781

118,917

-33.9%

-31.2%

2.7%

11.0%

GM

183,530

218,845

197,697

-16.1%

-12.8%

-7.2%

0.3%

Honda

133,666

135,925

135,542

-1.7%

2.3%

-1.4%

6.5%

Hyundai

69,550

59,721

73,680

16.5%

21.1%

-5.6%

1.9%

Kia

64,172

57,015

70,099

12.6%

17.1%

-8.5%

-1.1%

Nissan

64,205

73,833

80,456

-13.0%

-9.6%

-20.2%

-13.8%

Stellantis

142,791

171,519

142,065

-16.7%

-13.4%

0.5%

8.6%

Subaru

43,065

57,885

50,125

-25.6%

-22.6%

-14.1%

-7.2%

Tesla

26,425

19,000

26,200

39.1%

44.6%

0.9%

8.9%

Toyota

200,202

190,532

225,917

5.1%

9.3%

-11.4%

-4.3%

Volkswagen Group

53,295

50,275

55,754

6.0%

10.2%

-4.4%

3.2%

Industry

1,212,399

1,319,682

1,291,775

-8.1%

-4.5%

-6.1%

1.4%

 

Retail Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Aug 2021 Forecast

Aug 2020 Actual

Jul 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

28,851

24,827

28,359

16.2%

20.9%

1.7%

9.9%

Daimler

21,794

23,120

24,466

-5.7%

-2.0%

-10.9%

-3.8%

Ford

90,121

147,570

96,446

-38.9%

-36.5%

-6.6%

0.9%

GM

155,217

196,696

172,037

-21.1%

-17.9%

-9.8%

-2.6%

Honda

132,042

135,147

134,974

-2.3%

1.6%

-2.2%

5.7%

Hyundai

61,961

57,839

66,053

7.1%

11.4%

-6.2%

1.3%

Kia

58,942

53,802

67,491

9.6%

13.9%

-12.7%

-5.7%

Nissan

58,190

68,339

66,456

-14.9%

-11.4%

-12.4%

-5.4%

Stellantis

118,682

147,408

119,919

-19.5%

-16.3%

-1.0%

6.9%

Subaru

42,220

56,999

48,256

-25.9%

-23.0%

-12.5%

-5.5%

Tesla

26,260

19,000

26,191

38.2%

43.7%

0.3%

8.3%

Toyota

180,822

184,624

199,937

-2.1%

1.9%

-9.6%

-2.3%

Volkswagen Group

52,507

49,823

54,953

5.4%

9.6%

-4.5%

3.2%

Industry

1,077,701

1,211,579

1,158,127

-11.0%

-7.5%

-6.9%

0.5%

















 


Fleet Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Aug 2021 Forecast

Aug 2020 Actual

Jul 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

565

408

486

38.5%

44.0%

16.1%

25.4%

Daimler

1,046

846

511

23.7%

28.6%

104.7%

121.1%

Ford

32,045

37,211

22,471

-13.9%

-10.4%

42.6%

54.0%

GM

28,313

22,149

25,660

27.8%

32.9%

10.3%

19.2%

Honda

1,625

778

568

108.9%

117.2%

186.1%

209.0%

Hyundai

7,589

1,882

7,627

303.3%

319.4%

-0.5%

7.5%

Kia

5,230

3,213

2,608

62.8%

69.3%

100.5%

116.6%

Nissan

6,015

5,494

14,000

9.5%

13.9%

-57.0%

-53.6%

Stellantis

24,109

24,111

22,146

0.0%

4.0%

8.9%

17.6%

Subaru

845

886

1,869

-4.6%

-0.8%

-54.8%

-51.2%

Tesla

165

-

9



1747.2%

1895.0%

Toyota

19,380

5,908

25,980

228.0%

241.2%

-25.4%

-19.4%

Volkswagen Group

789

452

801

74.4%

81.4%

-1.5%

6.4%

Industry

134,698

108,103

133,648

24.6%

29.6%

0.8%

8.8%

 

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer

Aug 2021 Forecast

Aug 2020 Actual

Jul 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

MoM % Change

BMW

1.9%

1.6%

1.7%

18.8%

13.9%

Daimler

4.6%

3.5%

2.0%

29.8%

123.9%

Ford

26.2%

20.1%

18.9%

30.3%

38.8%

GM

15.4%

10.1%

13.0%

52.4%

18.9%

Honda

1.2%

0.6%

0.4%

112.4%

190.1%

Hyundai

10.9%

3.2%

10.4%

246.3%

5.4%

Kia

8.1%

5.6%

3.7%

44.6%

119.1%

Nissan

9.4%

7.4%

17.4%

25.9%

-46.2%

Stellantis

16.9%

14.1%

15.6%

20.1%

8.3%

Subaru

2.0%

1.5%

3.7%

28.3%

-47.4%

Tesla

0.6%

0.0%

0.0%


1731.4%

Toyota

9.7%

3.1%

11.5%

212.2%

-15.8%

Volkswagen Group

1.5%

0.9%

1.4%

64.6%

3.0%

Industry

11.1%

8.2%

10.3%

35.6%

7.4%

 

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

Aug 2021 Forecast

Aug 2020 Actual

Jul 2021 Actual

BMW

2.4%

1.9%

2.2%

Daimler

1.9%

1.8%

1.9%

Ford

10.1%

14.0%

9.2%

GM

15.1%

16.6%

15.3%

Honda

11.0%

10.3%

10.5%

Hyundai

5.7%

4.5%

5.7%

Kia

5.3%

4.3%

5.4%

Nissan

5.3%

5.6%

6.2%

Stellantis

11.8%

13.0%

11.0%

Subaru

3.6%

4.4%

3.9%

Tesla

2.2%

1.4%

2.0%

Toyota

16.5%

14.4%

17.5%

Volkswagen Group

4.4%

3.8%

4.3%


95.3%

96.1%

95.2%

 

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer

Aug 2021 Forecast

Aug 2020 Actual

Jul 2021 Actual

BMW

2.7%

2.0%

2.4%

Daimler

2.0%

1.9%

2.1%

Ford

8.4%

12.2%

8.3%

GM

14.4%

16.2%

14.9%

Honda

12.3%

11.2%

11.7%

Hyundai

5.7%

4.8%

5.7%

Kia

5.5%

4.4%

5.8%

Nissan

5.4%

5.6%

5.7%

Stellantis

11.0%

12.2%

10.4%

Subaru

3.9%

4.7%

4.2%

Tesla

2.4%

1.6%

2.3%

Toyota

16.8%

15.2%

17.3%

Volkswagen Group

4.9%

4.1%

4.7%


95.4%

96.2%

95.5%

 

ATP



Manufacturer

Aug 2021 Forecast

Aug 2020 Actual

Jul 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$57,757

$57,122

$56,408

1.1%

2.4%

Daimler

$67,341

$59,487

$60,768

13.2%

10.8%

Ford

$47,641

$42,342

$46,896

12.5%

1.6%

GM

$44,962

$41,745

$44,846

7.7%

0.3%

Honda

$31,557

$30,112

$31,048

4.8%

1.6%

Hyundai

$31,842

$29,082

$31,114

9.5%

2.3%

Kia

$27,674

$26,158

$27,803

5.8%

-0.5%

Nissan

$31,393

$28,419

$31,574

10.5%

-0.6%

Stellantis

$47,719

$42,440

$47,623

12.4%

0.2%

Subaru

$31,312

$30,087

$30,983

4.1%

1.1%

Toyota

$35,035

$34,087

$35,102

2.8%

-0.2%

Volkswagen Group

$42,197

$40,947

$42,273

3.1%

-0.2%

Industry

$38,520

$36,373

$38,332

5.9%

0.5%


$2,148


$188



 

Incentives



Manufacturer

Aug 2021 Forecast

Aug 2020 Actual

Jul 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$4,029

$5,486

$4,427

-26.6%

-9.0%

Daimler

$3,929

$5,560

$3,280

-29.3%

19.8%

Ford

$2,234

$4,023

$2,461

-44.5%

-9.2%

GM

$3,384

$5,570

$3,991

-39.2%

-15.2%

Honda

$1,945

$2,644

$2,112

-26.4%

-7.9%

Hyundai

$1,503

$2,444

$1,895

-38.5%

-20.7%

Kia

$2,034

$3,711

$2,603

-45.2%

-21.9%

Nissan

$2,283

$4,520

$3,005

-49.5%

-24.0%

Stellantis

$2,981

$4,812

$2,720

-38.1%

9.6%

Subaru

$1,192

$1,855

$1,395

-35.7%

-14.5%

Toyota

$1,825

$2,745

$1,957

-33.5%

-6.8%

Volkswagen Group

$2,799

$4,478

$3,362

-37.5%

-16.8%

Industry

$2,432

$3,969

$2,688

-38.7%

-9.5%


-$1,537


-$256



 

Incentives as % of ATP



Manufacturer

Aug 2021 Forecast

Aug 2020 Actual

Jul 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

7.0%

9.6%

7.8%

-27.4%

-11.1%

Daimler

5.8%

9.3%

5.4%

-37.6%

8.1%

Ford

4.7%

9.5%

5.2%

-50.7%

-10.7%

GM

7.5%

13.3%

8.9%

-43.6%

-15.4%

Honda

6.2%

8.8%

6.8%

-29.8%

-9.4%

Hyundai

4.7%

8.4%

6.1%

-43.8%

-22.5%

Kia

7.4%

14.2%

9.4%

-48.2%

-21.5%

Nissan

7.3%

15.9%

9.5%

-54.3%

-23.6%

Stellantis

6.2%

11.3%

5.7%

-44.9%

9.4%

Subaru

3.8%

6.2%

4.5%

-38.3%

-15.4%

Toyota

5.2%

8.1%

5.6%

-35.3%

-6.6%

Volkswagen Group

6.6%

10.9%

8.0%

-39.4%

-16.6%

Industry

6.3%

10.9%

7.0%

-42.1%

-10.0%

 

Revenue



Manufacturer

Aug 2021 Forecast

Aug 2020 Actual

Jul 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM

Industry

$46,702,106,518

$48,000,364,966

$49,516,875,483

-2.7%

-5.7%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s (TRUE) analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s (TRUE) operations.)

About TrueCar (TRUE)

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar (TRUE) powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter.

1 according to Motor Intelligence

 

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SOURCE TrueCar, Inc. (TRUE)

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