ICE Closing Review: The Inevitable End to Canola Rally Strikes

WINNIPEG, Manitoba--Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures dropped back on Thursday, most likely due to profit-taking according to a trader.

Canola prices rallied for several days after they had been in a trading range for a number of weeks. The trader stressed the Canadian oilseed will need to remain expensive when going through the upcoming winter.

There were also sharp downturns in the Chicago soy complex, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil. The latter two retreated from recent contract highs.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada issued its monthly supply and demand estimates and the trader suggested that exports of 6.5 million tonnes are too high, while domestic use of 7.7 million tonnes is too low. He said AAFC's estimate of almost 12.8 million tonnes of canola produced this year is probably quite close to what came off of the Prairie fields.

Statistics Canada will issues its survey-based production report on Dec. 3.

The trader noted that Australia is set to export a record 4.5 million tonnes of canola this year. However, he said the extra 1.5 million the country is to put on the global market will have little impact on prices.

At mid-afternoon the Canadian dollar was lower with the loonie at 80.78 U.S. cents, compared to Wednesday's close of 81.11.

There were 31,106 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 36,030 contracts changed hands.

Spreading accounted for 23,342 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

            Price       Change


   Nov       937.40    dn 11.90
   Jan       927.40    dn 17.20
   Mar       912.30    dn 15.00
   May       886.90    dn 13.00

Spread trade prices are Canadian dollars and the volume represents the number of spreads:

   Months                Prices               Volume
   Nov/Jan       10.50 over to 4.70 over       4,095
   Nov/Mar       27.60 over to 24.00 over        348
   Nov/May       51.50 over to 48.90 over        190
   Nov/Jul       82.80 over to 79.80 over        100
   Nov/Nov       229.00 over                      13
   Jan/Mar       18.50 over to 15.00 over      3,682
   Jan/May       45.00 over to 41.70 over          7
   Jan/Jul       79.00 over to 71.00 over        364
   Mar/May       28.90 over to 24.20 over      1,099
   Mar/Jul       61.00 over to 55.00 over        154
   May/Jul       33.10 over to 29.70 over      1,452
   Jul/Nov       148.90 over to 136.5 over       148
   Nov/Jan       9.40 over to 8.20 over           17
   Jan/Mar       2.60 over                         2

Source: Commodity News Service Canada

Write to Glen Hallick at

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  10-21-21 1537ET
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