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FOREX-U.S. dollar slides as markets re-evaluate Fed rate path

  • BY Reuters
  • 11:50 AM ET 06/24/2022
       * U.S. dollar on pace for 1st weekly decline this month
    * U.S. rate hike bets pare back aggressive Fed tightening path
    * U.S. new home sales rise; Michigan sentiment worsens

 (Updates prices; adds comment, FX table, bullets, byline, NEW YORK dateline)
    By Sujata Rao and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
    LONDON/NEW YORK, June 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped on Friday and was on track for its first
weekly decline this month, as traders dialed down bets on where interest rates may peak and brought forward
their views on the timing of interest rate cuts to counter a possible recession.
    A significant factor this week has been the fall in oil and commodity prices, which has eased inflation
fears and allowed equity markets to rebound. This has eroded the safe-haven bid that has been boosting the
dollar against other major currencies.
    "Falling commodity prices could help pull headline inflation prints downward - particularly into the
autumn months - reducing the need for aggressive monetary tightening," said Karl Schamotta, chief market
strategist at payments company Corpay in Toronto.
    "Mid-curve interest rate expectations are also falling as market participants bet the Fed will
overtighten in response to rising consumer inflation expectations - and then be forced into reversing
direction," he added.
    U.S. rate futures priced in a 73% probability of a 75 basis-point increase at the July meeting. For
September the market has factored in a 50-bps rise.
    In late morning New York trading, the dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against six
major currencies, fell 0.3% to 104.06.
    The safe-haven greenback slipped further after data showed new home sales jumped 10.7% to a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 696,000 units last month. May's sales pace was revised higher to 629,000 units from
the previously reported 591,000 units.
    The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed mixed results, with sentiment worsening in
June to 50, from a final reading in May of 58. But the reading on five-year inflation expectations eased to
3.1 from the preliminary 3.3% estimate in mid-June.
    The dollar, up around 9% this year, has lost some of its shine since investors started betting the Fed
could slow the rate-tightening pace following another 75 basis-point increase in July. They now see rates
peaking next March around 3.5% and falling nearly 20 bps by July 2023.
    This rate hike repricing sent 10-year Treasury yields to two-week lows, while the dollar index has lost
0.5% this week.
    For now though, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed the central bank's "unconditional" commitment to taming
inflation. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman also supported 50 bps hikes for "the next few" meetings
after July.
    Analysts noted terminal rate repricing across the developed world as recession fears grow.
    "The repricing in the market ... has held the dollar back but an offsetting force is the risk of a
global downturn. The Fed is pretty much on autopilot. Until they take their foot off the brakes, dollar
weakness will be limited," BMO Capital Markets strategist Stephen Gallo said.
    "Rate hikes are being taken out of the euro and sterling markets too," he noted.
    The Japanese yen, sensitive to changes in U.S. yields, was down 0.2% at 135.20 per dollar.
    The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0574.
    The greenback's slide boosted even commodity-focused currencies such as the Australian dollar and
Norwegian crown. The Aussie ticked up 0.7% to US$0.6944, though it remained on track for a third
straight weekly decline.
    The Norwegian crown, fresh off Thursday's 50 basis-point  rate hike, was up 1.0% at 9.871 per dollar
    The Swiss franc touched the highest since early March against the euro at 1.0055, rising 0.5% on the day

    Currency bid prices at 11:07 AM (1507 GMT)
 Description      RIC         Last           U.S. Close  Pct Change     YTD Pct       High Bid    Low Bid
                                              Previous                   Change
 Dollar index                 104.0300       104.4000    -0.34%         8.746%        +104.5100   +103.9400
 Euro/Dollar                  $1.0557        $1.0523     +0.33%         -7.13%        +$1.0571    +$1.0513
 Dollar/Yen                   135.0750       134.9700    +0.08%         +17.34%       +135.2900   +134.3600
 Euro/Yen                     142.58         141.98      +0.42%         +9.41%        +142.7100   +141.4300
 Dollar/Swiss                 0.9544         0.9611      -0.68%         +4.65%        +0.9632     +0.9522
 Sterling/Dollar              $1.2305        $1.2262     +0.36%         -9.01%        +$1.2320    +$1.2243
 Dollar/Canadian              1.2906         1.2997      -0.70%         +2.07%        +1.2999     +1.2906
 Aussie/Dollar                $0.6949        $0.6895     +0.80%         -4.38%        +$0.6951    +$0.6889
 Euro/Swiss                   1.0077         1.0114      -0.37%         -2.82%        +1.0138     +1.0051
 Euro/Sterling                0.8577         0.8583      -0.07%         +2.11%        +0.8596     +0.8562
 NZ                           $0.6321        $0.6277     +0.73%         -7.62%        +$0.6327    +$0.6277
 Dollar/Norway                9.8570         9.9750      -1.01%         +12.08%       +9.9780     +9.8620
 Euro/Norway                  10.4091        10.4953     -0.82%         +3.96%        +10.5146    +10.3595
 Dollar/Sweden                10.1179        10.1702     -0.29%         +12.20%       +10.1878    +10.1043
 Euro/Sweden                  10.6816        10.7126     -0.29%         +4.37%        +10.7150    +10.6770

 (Reporting by Sujata Rao in London and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York; Additional reporting by Kevin
Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Hugh Lawson, Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Richard Chang)

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