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U.S. natgas down 4% to 10-week low as Hurricane Ian approaches Florida

       Sept 27 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% on Tuesday to a 10-week low as Hurricane
Ian advanced toward Florida and on forecasts for milder weather over the next two weeks that will likely cut
gas demand and allow utilities to inject more fuel into storage.
    The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) projected Ian, after battering Cuba, would cross the Gulf of
Mexico and slam southwest Florida on Wednesday as a major storm with winds of up to 125 miles (201 kilometers)
per hour.
        Only about 2% of U.S. gas production comes from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico, with most coming
from shale basins like the Permian in West Texas and the Marcellus in Pennsylvania. Analysts said storms were
more likely to cut demand than supply since they knock out power and can cause liquefied natural , gas (LNG)
export terminals to shut.
    There were still about 487,800 customers in Puerto Rico and 127,000 in Nova Scotia without power after
Hurricane Fiona battered the U.S. island on Sept. 18 and the Canadian province on Sept. 24.

    Also weighing on gas prices, demand was expected to decline in October when the Cove Point LNG plant in
Maryland shuts for a couple weeks of maintenance. Cove Point consumes about 0.8 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) of gas.
    U.S. gas use has already been reduced for months by the ongoing outage at the Freeport LNG export plant in
Texas, leaving more gas for U.S. utilities to inject into stockpiles for next winter.
    Freeport, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 bcfd of gas before it shut on
June 8. Freeport LNG expects the facility to return to at least partial service in early to mid-November.

    On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures for October delivery fell 25.2 cents, or
3.7%, to settle at $6.651 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since July 14.
    The front-month remained technically oversold, with a relative strength index (RSI) below 30 for a fourth
straight day for the first time since early July.
    Year-to-date, gas futures remained up about 79% as global gas prices have soared, feeding demand for U.S.
exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.
    Gas was trading around $54 per mmBtu in Europe and $42 in Asia. That was an 11% gain
for prices in Europe due to leaks on the Nord Stream pipelines from Russia to Germany.
    Russian gas exports via the three main lines into Germany - Nord Stream 1 (Russia-Germany), Yamal
(Russia-Belarus-Poland-Germany) and the Russia-Ukraine-Slovakia-Czech Republic-Germany route - have averaged
just 1.3 bcfd so far in September, down from 2.5 bcfd in August and 10.8 bcfd in September 2021.
    Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 98.8 bcfd so far
in September from a monthly record of 98.0 bcfd in August.
    With cooler autumn weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would
slip from 90.3 bcfd this week to 88.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's
outlook on Monday.
                                              Week ended     Week ended     Year ago   Five-year
                                                Sep 23         Sep 16        Sep 23     average
                                              (Forecast)      (Actual)                   Sep 23
 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):         +86           +103          +86         +77
 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):             2,960          2,874        3,157       3,283
 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average        -9.8%         -10.4%


 Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)   Current Day     Prior Day    This Month  Prior Year   Five Year
                                                                           Last Year    Average      Average
                                                                                          2021     (2017-2021)
 Henry Hub                                       6.97           6.90          5.11        3.73        2.89
 Title Transfer Facility (TTF)                   54.23          48.84        22.61       16.04        7.49
 Japan Korea Marker (JKM)                        37.69          37.57        23.35       18.00        8.95


 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
 Two-Week Total Forecast                      Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year      30-Year
                                                                                          Norm        Norm
 U.S. GFS HDDs                                    58             55            24          63          80
 U.S. GFS CDDs                                    72             76            89          85          71
 U.S. GFS TDDs                                    130            131          113         148          151

 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
                                              Prior Week    Current Week   Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                       Last Year   Average For
                                                                                                     Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production                    98.3           98.7          99.2        93.5        87.0
 U.S. Imports from Canada                         8.0            7.8          7.5         8.3          7.7
 U.S. LNG Imports                                 0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                               106.2          106.5        106.7       101.8        95.8

 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                           2.1            1.9          1.9         2.0          2.4
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                           5.5            5.6          5.5         5.7          5.3
 U.S. LNG Exports                                11.5           11.7          11.3        10.3         4.9
 U.S. Commercial                                  4.8            5.4          5.3         5.0          4.9
 U.S. Residential                                 3.9            5.0          4.9         4.3          3.9
 U.S. Power Plant                                36.4           32.1          31.1        29.8        33.2
 U.S. Industrial                                 21.3           21.7          21.4        20.7        21.2
 U.S. Plant Fuel                                  4.9            4.9          4.9         4.9          4.9
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                           1.9            1.9          1.9         1.9          2.1
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                                0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                          73.3           71.0          69.6        66.7        70.3
 Total U.S. Demand                               92.4           90.3          88.3        84.7        82.9


 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
                                              Week ended     Week ended    Week ended  Week ended  Week ended
                                                Sep 30         Sep 23        Sep 16      Sep 9        Sep 2
 Wind                                             10             10            8           6            7
 Solar                                             4              3            3           3            3
 Hydro                                             5              5            5           6            5
 Other                                             2              2            2           2            2
 Petroleum                                         0              0            0           0            0
 Natural Gas                                      39             41            42          45          44
 Coal                                             18             19            19          21          21
 Nuclear                                          21             19            19          18          17


 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
 Hub                                          Current Day     Prior Day
 Henry Hub 6.75           6.75
 Transco Z6 New York 4.30           3.74
 PG&E Citygate 7.69           7.30
 Dominion South 4.16           3.76
 Chicago Citygate 5.09           4.92
 Algonquin Citygate 4.60           4.07
 SoCal Citygate 8.90           5.75
 Waha Hub 3.79           3.76
 AECO 3.83           4.16

 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
 Hub                                          Current Day     Prior Day
 New England 51.75          38.50
 PJM West 57.50          45.75
 Ercot North 49.90          52.25
 Mid C 108.00         139.00
 Palo Verde 101.25          58.75
 SP-15 105.50          60.25
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Jan Harvey)



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