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Home Prices Down, Sales Up

Good Morning Everyone!

Remember, no one gets rich panic selling.

 


 

Prices as of 4 pm EST, 9/27/22; % YTD


MARKET UPDATE

US home prices finally decline

  • Avg home price (20-largest cities) dropped by 0.44% in July

  • First decline since December 2011

  • Breaks 126-month streak of rising prices

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  • YoY price gains continue decelerating:

Unexpected surge in New Home Sales

  • Massive surprise jump of +28.8% (vs. -2.2% expected)

  • New home sales now at pre-pandemic levels

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  • To keep an eye on: homes under construction at elevated levels

    • Should lead to sharp increase in inventory

    • Increase in inventory should put further pressure on new home prices

Trade deficit decreased to $87.3 billion in August from $90.2 billion)

Retail Inventories ex auto +0.3% MoM (prev +0.3%)

Wholesale Inventories +1.3% MoM (prev +0.6%)

Day ahead:

  • 5 Fed speakers: Bostic (8:35 am EST) , Bullard (10:15 am), Powell (10:15 am), Bowman (11 am), Evans (2 pm)

  • 10:00 am - Pending Home Sales

  • 10:30 am - EIA stocks change

Gilts jump on BOE intervention

  • UK bonds rally on BOE decision to make temporary purchase of long-dated government bonds, put off reducing size of balance sheet

  • Will buy bonds from Wednesday to Oct 14

  • QT start pushed back to Oct 31

US10YR yield rises above 4% for first time since 2008

Ten-year US yields top 4% for first time since 2010

Crude $80

  • New report shows US on track to grow production faster than government forecast

  • 12.85 million barrels of crude per day - 250k more than EIA forecast

Apple NASDAQ:AAPL bails on plans to increase production

  • Will produce roughly same number of handsets in H2 2022 as same period last year

    • In line with original forecast

  • Had recently upgraded sales forecast ahead of iPhone 14 release

  • Smartphone market expected to shrink 6.5% to 1.27 billion units in 2022

Earnings

  • Cintas NASDAQ:CTAS

  • Paychex NASDAQ:PAYX

  • Thor Industries NYSE:THO


CRYPTO UPDATE

Powell talks DeFi:

We need to be very careful about how crypto activities are taken within the regulatory perimeter, where ever they take place [...] there is a real need for more appropriate regulation.

  • Says more regulation needed as DeFi expands, retail participation grows

  • Noted structural issues and lack of transparency

Celsius CEO resigns

  • Alex Mashinsky stepped down yesterday

  • Regretted being a "distraction"...

  • One of first major lenders to blow up

Robinhood NASDAQ:HOOD debuts Web3 wallet

  • "Robinhood Wallet"

  • Beta testing - 10k users

  • Polygon will be first blockchain supported

  • Will eventually be multichain wallet

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear

 

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