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Manufacturing PMI® at 50.9%; September 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

New Orders and Employment Contracting; Production and Backlogs Growing; Supplier Deliveries Slowing at a Slower Rate; Raw Materials Inventories Growing; Customers' Inventories Too Low; Prices Increasing at a Slower Rate; Exports Contracting; Imports Growing

TEMPE, Ariz., Oct. 3, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in September, with the overall economy achieving a 28th consecutive month of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

"The September Manufacturing PMI® registered 50.9 percent, 1.9 percentage points lower than the 52.8 percent recorded in August. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 28th month in a row after contraction in April and May 2020. The Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent. The New Orders Index returned to contraction territory at 47.1 percent, 4.2 percentage points lower than the 51.3 percent recorded in August. The Production Index reading of 50.6 percent is a 0.2-percentage point increase compared to August's figure of 50.4 percent. The Prices Index registered 51.7 percent, down 0.8 percentage point compared to the August figure of 52.5 percent. This is the index's lowest reading since June 2020 (51.3 percent). The Backlog of Orders Index registered 50.9 percent, 2.1 percentage points lower than the August reading of 53 percent. After a single month of expansion, the Employment Index contracted at 48.7 percent, 5.5 percentage points lower than the 54.2 percent recorded in August. The Supplier Deliveries Index reading of 52.4 percent is 2.7 percentage points lower than the August figure of 55.1 percent. This is the index's lowest reading since before the coronavirus pandemic (52.2 percent in December 2019). The Inventories Index registered 55.5 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the August reading of 53.1 percent. The New Export Orders Index contracted at 47.8 percent, down 1.6 percentage points compared to August's figure of 49.4 percent. This is the index's lowest reading since June 2020, when it registered 47.6 percent. The Imports Index remained in expansion territory at 52.6 percent, 0.1 percentage point above the August reading of 52.5 percent."

Fiore continues, "The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to expand, but at the lowest rate since the pandemic recovery began. Following four straight months of panelists' companies reporting softening new orders rates, the September index reading reflects companies adjusting to potential future lower demand. Demand eased, with the (1) New Orders Index returning to contraction, (2) New Export Orders Index in contraction for a second consecutive month, (3) Customers' Inventories Index remaining at a low level but as close as it's been to an 'about right' reading since early in the pandemic and (4) Backlog of Orders Index approaching contraction. Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) declined during the period, with a combined negative 5.3-percentage point impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. The Employment Index returned to contraction after one month of expansion, and the Production Index increased by 0.2 percentage point, staying in growth territory, but at a modest level. Many Business Survey Committee panelists' companies are now managing head counts through hiring freezes and attrition to lower levels, with medium- and long-term demand more uncertain. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — accommodated growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index reached an appropriate tension level, and the Inventories Index increased as panelists' companies continued to manage the total supply chain inventory. The Prices Index decreased for a sixth straight month and is not far from contraction territory, and the Imports Index modestly grew.

"Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, four — Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products — registered moderate-to-strong growth in September.

"Manufacturing expanded for the 28th straight month. Panelists' companies slowed hiring activity; month-over-month supplier delivery performance was the best since December 2019; prices growth slowed notably (with the index at 60 percent or lower) for the third consecutive month; and lead times continue to ease for capital equipment and production materials. Markedly absent from panelists' comments was any large-scale mentioning of layoffs; this indicates companies are confident of near-term demand, so primary goals are managing medium-term head counts and supply chain inventories," says Fiore.

Nine manufacturing industries reported growth in September, in the following order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The seven industries reporting contraction in September compared to August, in the following order are: Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Chemical Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • "Supply chain issues for all electronic components and custom build-to-print materials are in short supply due to capacity and skilled labor shortages. Energy cost continues to negatively impact freight cost." [Computer & Electronic Products]
  • "Concerns of global economic slowdown are growing, and (we are) experiencing some customers pulling back orders." [Chemical Products]
  • "Production is steady, allowing reduction of backlog amidst slightly softened demand." [Transportation Equipment]
  • "Almost all suppliers are experiencing lead times growth. It seems no one wants to keep inventory on hand anymore." [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
  • "Business is flat to down due to inflation and interest rates. Hard to find and keep employees due to wage increases by competitors." [Fabricated Metal Products]
  • "Supply chain constraints on many items are still an issue; staffing on the production side continues to be a significant problem. In contrast, we have more stock than needed on some key items — specifically imports — and have begun reducing open purchase orders and decreasing extended forecasts on those items in order to bleed down inventory." [Machinery]
  • "Business continues to be strong. Some commodities within the supply chain are starting to stabilize, while others are still causing disruption for production. Electrical and wiring components continue to cause significant issues. (We) cannot run as consistently as we would like." [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]
  • "Quotes and orders still strong; however, we are not able to accept any new orders for shipment (for the rest of) 2022 due to motor and electronic component shortages." [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
  • "The supply chain is still stressed, and it challenges our manufacturing plants for uptime. We have strong demand and need to run." [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]
  • "Business is still strong; raw materials are becoming more available, and some raw materials prices are falling." [Plastics & Rubber Products]

 

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
September 2022

Index

Series
Index

Sep

Series
Index

Aug

Percentage

Point

Change

Direction

Rate of
Change

Trend*
(Months)

Manufacturing PMI®

50.9

52.8

-1.9

Growing

Slower

28

New Orders

47.1

51.3

-4.2

Contracting

From Growing

1

Production

50.6

50.4

+0.2

Growing

Faster

28

Employment

48.7

54.2

-5.5

Contracting

From Growing

1

Supplier Deliveries

52.4

55.1

-2.7

Slowing

Slower

79

Inventories

55.5

53.1

+2.4

Growing

Faster

14

Customers' Inventories

41.6

38.9

+2.7

Too Low

Slower

72

Prices

51.7

52.5

-0.8

Increasing

Slower

28

Backlog of Orders

50.9

53.0

-2.1

Growing

Slower

27

New Export Orders

47.8

49.4

-1.6

Contracting

Faster

2

Imports

52.6

52.5

+0.1

Growing

Faster

4

OVERALL ECONOMY

Growing

Slower

28

Manufacturing Sector

Growing

Slower

28

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Adhesives; Copper; Diesel*; Electrical Components (22); Electricity; Electronic Components (22); Freight* (23); Hydraulic Components (2); Labor — Temporary; Natural Gas (15); Paint; Paper (2); Plastic Resins* (9); Rubber Based Products (14); Semiconductors; and Steel — Stainless*.

Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum (5); Diesel*; Freight* (2); High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) Resin; Lumber — Hardwood; Lumber — Softwood; Methanol; Ocean Freight; Plastic Resins* (4); Polyethylene; Polypropylene (2); Steel (5); Steel — Carbon (3); Steel — Hot Rolled (5); Steel — Stainless* (2); and Steel Products (3).

Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Components (24); Electronic Components (22); Hydraulic Components (5); Labor — Temporary; Rubber Based Products (4); Semiconductors (22); and Wire Harnesses (2).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.

SEPTEMBER 2022 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

Manufacturing PMI® 
The U.S. manufacturing sector grew in September, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 50.9 percent, 1.9 percentage points below the reading of 52.8 percent recorded in August. "The Manufacturing PMI® continued to indicate sector expansion and U.S. economic growth in September. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI®, three (Production, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) were in growth territory. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, four — Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products — registered moderate-to-strong growth in September. The Production Index increased 0.2 percentage point and remained in expansion territory. The Supplier Deliveries Index slowed at a slower rate while the Inventories Index grew at a faster rate, indicating continued easing of supply chain congestion. Seven of the 10 subindexes were positive for the period; a reading of 'too low' for the Customers' Inventories Index is considered a positive for future production," says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the September Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy grew in September for the 28th consecutive month following contraction in April and May 2020. "The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI® for September (50.9 percent) corresponds to a 0.8-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis," says Fiore.

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

Month

Manufacturing
PMI®

Month

Manufacturing
PMI®

Sep 2022

50.9

Mar 2022

57.1

Aug 2022

52.8

Feb 2022

58.6

Jul 2022

52.8

Jan 2022

57.6

Jun 2022

53.0

Dec 2021

58.8

May 2022

56.1

Nov 2021

60.6

Apr 2022

55.4

Oct 2021

60.8

Average for 12 months – 56.2

High – 60.8

Low – 50.9

New Orders
ISM®'s New Orders Index decreased 4.2 percentage points in September to 47.1 percent compared to 51.3 percent reported in August. This indicates that new order volumes fell back into contraction after one month of expansion. "Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, three —Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery — increased new orders at a moderate level. The index achieved its lowest level since May 2020, when it registered 32.3 percent. Capital Expenditures and Production Materials lead times remained elevated but have contracted 4 percent and 6 percent, respectively, over the last several months," says Fiore. (For more on lead times, see the Buying Policy section of this report.) A New Orders Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, five reported growth in new orders in September: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery. Eleven industries reported a decline in new orders in September, in the following order: Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

New Orders 

%Higher 

%Same 

%Lower 

Net 

Index 

Sep 2022

16.0

62.8

21.2

-5.2

47.1

Aug 2022

17.5

63.1

19.4

-1.9

51.3

Jul 2022

17.2

63.0

19.8

-2.6

48.0

Jun 2022

17.8

65.1

17.1

+0.7

49.2

Production
The Production Index registered 50.6 percent in September, 0.2 percentage point higher than the August reading of 50.4 percent, indicating growth for the 28th consecutive month. "Of the top six industries, only two — Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products — expanded in September. Materials availability and the labor pool continue to recover, but there is concern about demand beyond the near term," says Fiore. An index above 52.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures.

The eight industries reporting growth in production during the month of September — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The seven industries reporting a decrease in production in September — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Production 

%Higher 

%Same 

%Lower 

Net 

Index 

Sep 2022

17.5

64.3

18.2

-0.7

50.6

Aug 2022

17.6

65.4

17.0

+0.6

50.4

Jul 2022

24.9

58.5

16.6

+8.3

53.5

Jun 2022

27.4

60.9

11.7

+15.7

54.9

Employment
ISM®'s Employment Index registered 48.7 percent in September, 5.5 percentage points lower than the August reading of 54.2 percent. "The index returned to contraction territory after one month of expansion. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, two (Machinery; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) expanded. Labor management sentiment shifted in September, with a higher number of panelists' companies pausing hiring through hiring freezes and allowing attrition to reduce employment levels. Turnover rates eased, with 28 percent of comments citing backfill and retirement issues, a decrease from 33 percent in August," says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, six reported employment growth in September, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 10 industries reporting a decrease in employment in September — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment.

Employment 

%Higher 

%Same 

%Lower 

Net 

Index 

Sep 2022

17.5

60.3

22.2

-4.7

48.7

Aug 2022

19.3

68.3

12.4

+6.9

54.2

Jul 2022

22.0

59.4

18.6

+3.4

49.9

Jun 2022

17.9

63.7

18.4

-0.5

47.3

Supplier Deliveries
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in September, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 52.4 percent, 2.7 percentage points lower than the 55.1 percent reported in August. Of the top six manufacturing industries, four (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products) reported slower deliveries. "This indicates the best month-over-month supplier deliveries performance since December 2019, when the index registered 52.2 percent. In September, 83.2 percent of panelists reported 'same' or 'faster' deliveries, compared to 80.4 percent in August. Panelists' comments reiterate that suppliers performed better in September compared to previous months," says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

Ten manufacturing industries reported slower supplier deliveries in September, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products. Four industries reported faster supplier deliveries in September as compared to August: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

Supplier Deliveries 

 

%Slower 

 

%Same 

 

%Faster 

Net 

 

Index 

Sep 2022

16.8

71.2

12.0

+4.8

52.4

Aug 2022

19.6

71.0

9.4

+10.2

55.1

Jul 2022

21.4

67.6

11.0

+10.4

55.2

Jun 2022

27.4

59.8

12.8

+14.6

57.3

Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 55.5 percent in September, 2.4 percentage points higher than the 53.1 percent reported for August. "Manufacturing inventories expanded at a faster rate compared to August. Of the six big manufacturing industries, five (Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products) grew manufacturing raw material inventories in September. Panelists' companies continue to aggressively manage total supply chain inventories through a pausing of order placement in response to slowing in new order rates," says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the 11 reporting higher inventories in September — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The four industries reporting contracting inventories in September are: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Paper Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Inventories 

%Higher 

%Same 

%Lower 

Net 

Index 

Sep 2022

23.0

64.9

12.1

+10.9

55.5

Aug 2022

23.2

62.9

13.9

+9.3

53.1

Jul 2022

25.5

61.8

12.7

+12.8

57.3

Jun 2022

25.4

59.8

14.8

+10.6

56.0

Customers' Inventories
ISM®'s Customers' Inventories Index registered 41.6 percent in September, 2.7 percentage points higher than the 38.9 percent reported for August, indicating that customers' inventory levels were considered too low. "Customers' inventories are too low for the 72nd month in a row, a positive for future production growth. The index registered above 40 percent for the first time after spending 25 consecutive months below that level," says Fiore.

Three industries (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; and Furniture & Related Products) reported customers' inventories as too high in September. The 11 industries reporting customers' inventories as too low — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Customers'
Inventories 

%
Reporting 

%Too
High 

%About
Right 

%Too
Low 

Net 

 

Index 

Sep 2022

73

13.5

56.1

30.4

-16.9

41.6

Aug 2022

75

12.2

53.4

34.4

-22.2

38.9

Jul 2022

78

12.4

54.2

33.4

-21.0

39.5

Jun 2022

75

11.1

48.1

40.8

-29.7

35.2

Prices 
The ISM® Prices Index registered 51.7 percent in September, 0.8 percentage point lower compared to the August reading of 52.5 percent, indicating raw materials prices increased for the 28th consecutive month, at a slower rate. This is the second consecutive month the Prices Index registered below 60 percent, a level not seen since August 2020 (59.5 percent), and this is also the lowest reading since June 2020 (51.3 percent). Over the past six months, the index has decreased 35.4 percentage points, including a combined 26-percentage point plunge in July and August. "The slowing in price increases is being driven by continued (1) relaxation in the energy markets, (2) softening in the copper, steel, aluminum and corrugate markets and (3) continuing sluggishness in chemical and plastics demand. Notably, 28.1 percent of respondents reported paying lower prices in September, compared to 26.7 percent in August," says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In September, 10 of 18 industries reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in the following order: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. The seven industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in September — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Fabricated Metal Products.


Prices

%Higher 

%Same 

%Lower 

Net

Index 

Sep 2022

31.4

40.5

28.1

+3.3

51.7

Aug 2022

31.7

41.6

26.7

+5.0

52.5

Jul 2022

41.5

37.0

21.5

+20.0

60.0

Jun 2022

65.2

26.5

8.3

+56.9

78.5

Backlog of Orders
ISM®'s Backlog of Orders Index registered 50.9 percent in September, a 2.1-percentage point decrease compared to the 53 percent reported in August, indicating order backlogs expanded for the 27th straight month. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, four — Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products — expanded their order backlogs. "Backlogs expanded in September at a slower rate as the New Orders Index level fell, and production expanded minimally in the period. A slowing in price increases is a positive for future new orders growth and backlogs expansion," says Fiore.

Eight industries reported growth in order backlogs in September, in the following order: Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Eight industries reported lower backlogs in September, in the following order: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

Backlog of 
Orders

%
Reporting 

 

%Higher 

 

%Same 

 

%Lower 

Net 

 

Index 

Sep 2022

90

25.5

50.8

23.7

+1.8

50.9

Aug 2022

93

24.6

56.7

18.7

+5.9

53.0

Jul 2022

92

26.6

49.4

24.0

+2.6

51.3

Jun 2022

93

25.6

55.3

19.1

+6.5

53.2

New Export Orders 
ISM®'s New Export Orders Index registered 47.8 percent in September, 1.6 percentage points below the August reading of 49.4 percent. "The New Export Orders Index contracted in September for the second consecutive month after 25 consecutive months in expansion territory. Weakness in European economies and China's economic sluggishness continue to constrain new export orders and are having a negative influence on new order rates," says Fiore.

Three industries reported growth in new export orders in September: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment. The eight industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in September — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products.

New Export 
Orders

%
Reporting 

 

%Higher 

 

%Same 

 

%Lower 

Net 

 

Index 

Sep 2022

72

9.4

76.7

13.9

-4.5

47.8

Aug 2022

75

9.9

79.0

11.1

-1.2

49.4

Jul 2022

73

16.6

72.1

11.3

+5.3

52.6

Jun 2022

72

12.3

76.8

10.9

+1.4

50.7

Imports
ISM®'s Imports Index registered 52.6 percent in September, an increase of 0.1 percentage point compared to August's figure of 52.5 percent. "Imports grew in September at marginal rates consistent with August. Port issues have become less of an issue for panelists' companies," says Fiore.

The eight industries reporting growth in imports in September — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Three industries reported lower volumes of imports in September: Wood Products; Paper Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. Seven industries reported no change in imports in September.

Imports

% Reporting 

 

%Higher 

 

%Same 

 

%Lower 

Net 

 

Index 

Sep 2022

83

15.2

74.8

10.0

+5.2

52.6

Aug 2022

83

15.6

73.8

10.6

+5.0

52.5

Jul 2022

85

19.6

69.5

10.9

+8.7

54.4

Jun 2022

84

14.4

72.5

13.1

+1.3

50.7

The Supplier Deliveries, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in September was 178 days, a decrease of two days compared to August. Average lead time in September for Production Materials was 94 days, a decrease of two days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies increased by two days, to 48 days.

Percent Reporting

Capital
Expenditures

Hand-to-
Mouth

30 Days

60 Days

90 Days

6 Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Sep 2022

16

5

7

11

32

29

178

Aug 2022

18

5

6

11

29

31

180

Jul 2022

14

3

10

13

29

31

183

Jun 2022

15

6

7

9

31

32

186

 

Percent Reporting

Production Materials

Hand-to-
Mouth

30 Days

60 Days

90 Days

6 Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Sep 2022

9

24

24

22

13

8

94

Aug 2022

7

22

24

25

15

7

96

Jul 2022

8

21

21

28

13

9

100

Jun 2022

8

19

23

25

18

7

100

 

Percent Reporting

MRO Supplies

Hand-to-
Mouth

30 Days

60 Days

90 Days

6 Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Sep 2022

26

35

19

15

4

1

48

Aug 2022

26

34

21

14

5

0

46

Jul 2022

22

36

21

15

5

1

51

Jun 2022

25

39

19

12

5

0

44

 

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of September 2022.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. The composition of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is stratified according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and each of the following NAICS-based industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP): Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies). The data are weighted based on each industry's contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2020 GDP (released December 22, 2021), the six largest manufacturing subsectors are: Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. Beginning in February 2018 with January 2018 data, computation of the indexes is accomplished utilizing unrounded numbers.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (Manufacturing PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories (seasonally adjusted).

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A Manufacturing PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 48.7 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 48.7 percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to report on information for the current month for U.S. operations only. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating MRO Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted.

ISM ROB Content
The Institute for Supply Management® ("ISM") Report On Business® (both Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing) ("ISM ROB") contains information, text, files, images, video, sounds, musical works, works of authorship, applications, and any other materials or content (collectively, "Content") of ISM ("ISM ROB Content"). ISM ROB Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret, and other laws, and as between you and ISM, ISM owns and retains all rights in the ISM ROB Content. ISM hereby grants you a limited, revocable, nonsublicensable license to access and display on your individual device the ISM ROB Content (excluding any software code) solely for your personal, non-commercial use. The ISM ROB Content shall also contain Content of users and other ISM licensors. Except as provided herein or as explicitly allowed in writing by ISM, you shall not copy, download, stream, capture, reproduce, duplicate, archive, upload, modify, translate, publish, broadcast, transmit, retransmit, distribute, perform, display, sell, or otherwise use any ISM ROB Content.

Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including but not limited to tables, charts, data streams, time-series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative works or materials are sold, bartered, or given away. You shall not either directly or through the use of any device, software, internet site, web-based service, or other means remove, alter, bypass, avoid, interfere with, or circumvent any copyright, trademark, or other proprietary notices marked on the Content or any digital rights management mechanism, device, or other content protection or access control measure associated with the Content including geo-filtering mechanisms. Without prior written authorization from ISM, you shall not build a business utilizing the Content, whether or not for profit.

You shall not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index of any portion of the Content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 309 West Elliot Road, Suite 113, Tempe, Arizona 85284-1556, or by emailing kcahill@ismworld.org. Subject: Content Request.

ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM ROB Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM ROB Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the ISM ROB. Report On Business®, PMI®, and NMI® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management®. Institute for Supply Management® and ISM® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc.

About Institute for Supply Management®
Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM® Report On Business®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM® Advance Digital Platform. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring October 2022 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 1, 2022.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

Contact:

Kristina Cahill 


Report On Business® Analyst 


ISM®, ROB/Research Manager 


Tempe, Arizona 


+1 480.455.5910 


Email: kcahill@ismworld.org

 

Institute for Supply Management logo. (PRNewsFoto/Institute for Supply Management)

 

Cision View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-50-9-september-2022-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-301638361.html

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management

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