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U.S. natgas dips at Dec contract expiry on lower demand forecast

       Nov 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid on the expiration day of the December contract on
Monday, as forecasts for demand dropped and production rose to near all-time highs.
    On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for December delivery fell 31.2 cents, or 4.4%, to
settle at $6.712 per million British thermal units.
    "We've got some weather model moderation in the 6-10 day period, meaning that we lost some heating degree
days ... there's going to be a fair amount of volatility here between the weather model forecast, the post
trading from the holiday season and then, of course, for contract expiration," said Robert DiDona of Energy
Ventures Analysis.
        Refinitiv projected that average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would fall to 116 billion cubic
feet per day (bcfd) this week from 125.8 bcfd in the prior week.
        Refinitiv data also showed average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 99.6 bcfd so far in
November, up from a monthly record of 99.4 bcfd in October.

    "This market has relinquished most of last week's strong gains largely on negative spillover from the
renewed plunge in oil prices," energy consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
    Oil prices fell close to their lowest this year earlier on Monday as street protests against strict
COVID-19 curbs in China, the world's biggest crude importer, stoked concern over the outlook for fuel demand.

    In addition, the market had questions about whether Freeport LNG will be able to restart its liquefied
natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas in mid-December as planned.
    That matters because once the 2.1-billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) plant restarts it will consume U.S. gas
to turn it into LNG for export, boosting demand for gas at the same time that cold winter weather will boost
heating demand.
    Meanwhile, British gas contracts for short-term delivery jumped on Monday morning on rising demand amid
cold weather and low wind power generation, while Dutch contracts eased on steady supplies.
                                              Week ended     Week ended     Year ago    Five-year
                                                Nov 25         Nov 18        Nov 25      average
                                              (Forecast)      (Actual)                    Nov 25
 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):        -103            -80           -54         -34
 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):             3,461          3,564         3,572       3,569
 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average        -3.0%          -1.1%


 Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)                                This Month   Prior Year   Five Year
                                              Current Day     Prior Day    Last Year     Average      Average
                                                                                           2021     (2017-2021)
 Henry Hub                                                                    5.12         3.73        2.89
                                                 6.87           7.33

 Title Transfer Facility (TTF)                                                27.71       16.04        7.49
                                                 35.75          36.34

 Japan Korea Marker (JKM)                                                     32.98       18.00        8.95
                                                 29.96          31.12



 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
 Two-Week Total Forecast
                                              Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year     10-Year     30-Year
                                                                                           Norm        Norm

 U.S. GFS HDDs
                                                  404            215           305          347         362

 U.S. GFS CDDs                                           8              6
                                                                                8            6           7

 U.S. GFS TDDs
                                                  408            221           313          353         369


 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
                                                                                                     Five-Year
                                              Prior Week    Current Week    Next Week    This Week  Average For
                                                                                        Last Year     Month

 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production                                                                          89.6
                                                 100.1          100.6         101.0

 U.S. Imports from Canada                                                                               8.2
                                                 91.5            8.7           9.2

 U.S. LNG Imports                                                                                       0.1
                                                  0.0            0.0           0.0

 Total U.S. Supply                                                                                     97.9
                                                 109.2          109.2         110.2


 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                                                                                 2.9
                                                  3.3            3.7           3.7

 U.S. Exports to Mexico                                                                                 5.1
                                                  5.3            5.4           5.5

 U.S. LNG Exports                                                                                       6.4
                                                 12.0           11.7          12.3

 U.S. Commercial                                                                                       11.5
                                                 15.4           13.7          16.0

 U.S. Residential                                                                                      17.2
                                                 25.3           22.3          27.2

 U.S. Power Plant                                                                                      26.0
                                                 31.4           27.0          29.8

 U.S. Industrial                                                                                       24.0
                                                 25.3           24.5          25.4

 U.S. Plant Fuel                                                                                        4.9
                                                  4.9            5.0           5.0

 U.S. Pipe Distribution                                                                                 2.1
                                                  2.8            2.5           2.8

 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                                                                                      0.1
                                                  0.1            0.1           0.1

 Total U.S. Consumption                                                                                85.8
                                                 105.2          95.1          106.3

 Total U.S. Demand                                                                                     100.2
                                                 125.8          116.0         127.8



 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
                                                             Week ended    Week ended   Week ended  Week ended
                                              Week ended       Nov 25        Nov 18       Nov 11       Nov 4
                                                 Dec 2

 Wind                                                             9             9           15          12
                                                  14

 Solar                                                   3        2             3           3            3

 Hydro                                                   6        6             7           6            5

 Other                                                   2        2             2           3            2

 Petroleum                                               0        0             0           0            0

 Natural Gas                                                     39            41           38          39
                                                  32

 Coal                                                            20            18           16          18
                                                  20

 Nuclear                                                         20            20           20          20
                                                  23



 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
 Hub
                                              Current Day     Prior Day

 Henry Hub --
                                                                6.57

 Transco Z6 New York --
                                                                6.10

 PG&E Citygate --
                                                                12.21

 Dominion South --
                                                                5.82

 Chicago Citygate --
                                                                6.15

 Algonquin Citygate --
                                                                6.87

 SoCal Citygate --
                                                                10.58

 Waha Hub --
                                                                5.50

 AECO --
                                                                6.65


 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
 Hub
                                              Current Day     Prior Day

 New England --
                                                                76.50

 PJM West --
                                                                49.50

 Ercot North --
                                                                41.50

 Mid C --
                                                                85.00

 Palo Verde --
                                                                50.50

 SP-15 --
                                                                95.50

 (Reporting by Kavya Guduru in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Swati Verma; editing by Jonathan Oatis and
David Gregorio)



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