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U.S. natgas drops as less demand forecast at robust output levels

       Nov 30 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped on Wednesday as forecasts for less cold weather
than previously feared lowered demand expectations for heating, while robust production levels further weighed
on the market.
        Front-month gas futures for January delivery fell 30.5 cents, or 4.2%, to settle at $6.930 per
million British thermal units, having dropped over 5% earlier to a session low of $6.806.
    "The forecasts appear to be kind of waffling a little bit back and forth on some cold weather expected
around the corner, but we just don't know when it's going to show up," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president
for energy at StoneX Financial Inc.
    Data provider Refinitiv forecast 406 heating degree days (HDDs), which are used to estimate demand to heat
homes and businesses, over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, is slightly lower than the outlook
on Tuesday.
    "For now, the near-term temperature outlook isn't intensely cold enough to spark any concerns about a
widening of the storage deficit," analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber & Associates said in a note
    Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 99.6 bcfd in November, up from
99.4 bcfd in October.
    "Production remains on the upswing with a record pace still on the table in providing an upside price
limiter," energy consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
    However, U.S. gas futures ended the month over 9% higher. Prices are also up about 90% so far this year as
much higher global prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to
Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
    Meanwhile, Freeport LNG has said it plans to start producing LNG again in mid-December and reach full
capacity of about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in March.
    Freeport LNG, however, has not yet submitted a request to restart the plant to the U.S. Department of
Transportation's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), sources familiar with the
company's filings have told Reuters.
    The plant was shut on June 8 due to an explosion caused by inadequate operating and testing procedures,
human error and fatigue, according to a report by consultants hired by the company to review the incident and
propose corrective actions.
                                                             Week ended     Year ago    Five-year
                                              Week ended       Nov 18        Nov 25      average
                                                Nov 25        (Actual)                    Nov 25
                                              (Forecast)

             U.S. weekly natgas storage                          -80           -54         -34
 change (bcf):                                    -84

             U.S. total natgas in storage                       3,564         3,572       3,569
 (bcf):                                          3,480

             U.S. total storage versus                          -1.1%
 5-year average                                  -2.5%



 Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)   Current Day     Prior Day    This Month   Prior Year   Five Year
                                                                           Last Year     Average      Average
                                                                                           2021     (2017-2021)
 Henry Hub                                       7.26           7.28          5.12         3.73        2.89
 Title Transfer Facility (TTF)                   38.55          39.61         27.71       16.04        7.49
 Japan Korea Marker (JKM)                        30.51          30.28         32.98       18.00        8.95


 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
 Two-Week Total Forecast                      Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year    10-Year      30-Year
                                                                                           Norm        Norm
 U.S. GFS HDDs                                    406            410           305         347          370
 U.S. GFS CDDs                                     6              8             8           6            5
 U.S. GFS TDDs                                    412            418           313         353          375

 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
                                              Prior Week    Current Week    Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                        Last Year   Average For
                                                                                                      Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production                    100.1          100.3         100.6        96.3        89.6
 U.S. Imports from Canada                        91.5            8.5           9.0         9.5          8.2
 U.S. LNG Imports                                 0.0            0.0           0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                               109.2          108.8         109.6       105.8        97.9

 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                           3.3            3.4           3.5         3.4          2.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                           5.3            5.6           5.6         5.8          5.1
 U.S. LNG Exports                                12.0           11.9          12.8         11.8         6.4
 U.S. Commercial                                 15.4           13.7          15.7         12.7        11.5
 U.S. Residential                                25.3           22.2          26.3         19.5        17.2
 U.S. Power Plant                                31.4           27.3          29.0         28.5        26.0
 U.S. Industrial                                 25.3           24.5          25.2         23.5        24.0
 U.S. Plant Fuel                                  4.9            5.0           5.0         5.0          4.9
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                           2.8            2.5           2.8         2.5          2.1
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                                0.1            0.1           0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                          105.2          95.2          104.0        91.8        85.8
 Total U.S. Demand                               125.8          116.2         125.9       112.8        100.2


 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
                                              Week ended     Week ended    Week ended   Week ended  Week ended
                                                 Dec 2         Nov 25        Nov 18       Nov 11       Nov 4
 Wind                                             14              9             9           15          12
 Solar                                             2              2             3           3            3
 Hydro                                             6              6             7           6            5
 Other                                             2              2             2           3            2
 Petroleum                                         0              0             0           0            0
 Natural Gas                                      33             39            41           38          39
 Coal                                             20             20            18           16          18
 Nuclear                                          23             20            20           20          20


 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
 Hub                                          Current Day     Prior Day
 Henry Hub 6.03           6.00
 Transco Z6 New York 6.30           5.45
 PG&E Citygate 16.22          12.67
 Dominion South 5.90           5.19
 Chicago Citygate 6.44           5.36
 Algonquin Citygate 6.61           5.79
 SoCal Citygate 14.38          11.08
 Waha Hub 5.56           5.21
 AECO 7.07           4.94

 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
 Hub                                          Current Day     Prior Day
 New England 64.25          73.75
 PJM West 60.50          54.50
 Ercot North 53.00          45.50
 Mid C 160.00         162.62
 Palo Verde 130.00         110.75
 SP-15 129.25         117.25
 (Reporting by Kavya Guduru in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Swati Verma; Editing by Will Dunham and Diane
Craft)



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