U.S. natgas jumps 5%, but still on track for record quarterly loss

          March 31 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% to a one-week high on Friday on forecasts for
more demand next week than previously expected with rising amounts of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG)
export plants, but they remained on track to drop by a record 51% this quarter,
    Feedgas to those LNG export plants climbed after Freeport LNG's facility in Texas exited an eight-month outage
in February and returned to near full power this week. Freeport LNG shut in June 2022 after a fire.
    The quarterly price drop came on rising output and mostly mild weather so far this winter that kept heating
demand low and allowed utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual.
    Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 10.1 cents, or
4.8%, to $2.205 per million British thermal units at 9:17 a.m. EDT (1317 GMT), putting the contract on track for its
highest close since March 24.
    Despite Friday's gain, the front-month was still down about 1% for the week, 20% for the month and 51% for the
quarter. That would be the contract's biggest quarterly drop on record, topping the current record loss of 49%
during the first quarter of 2001.
    The market has been extremely volatile this month, with the front-month gaining or losing more than 5% on 10 of
the past 22 trading days.
    With gas market volatility rising in recent weeks, open interest in gas futures on the NYMEX rose to 1.32
million contracts on Thursday, the highest since October 2021. Open interest in the front-month contract alone rose
to over 380,200 contracts on Thursday, the most since March 2020.
    Freeport LNG's export plant was on track to pull in about 2.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas on
Friday, up from 1.5 bcfd on Thursday, according to data provider Refinitiv.
    Energy traders said that was a sure sign that Freeport LNG was back near full power since the plant can turn
about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export when operating at full power.
    Another U.S. LNG company, Venture Global LNG, meanwhile, told federal energy regulators this week that it would
continue to work on its 1.6-bcfd Calcasieu Pass export plant in Louisiana before it enters full commercial
operations.
    Analysts, however, noted that the work at Calcasieu will likely not have much impact on total U.S. LNG exports
since the plant was already conducting some of the work and gas flows have averaged about 1.4 bcfd so far in March.
    Total gas flows to all seven big U.S. LNG export plants, including Freeport LNG and Calcasieu, rose to an
average of 13.2 bcfd so far in March, up from 12.8 bcfd in February. That would top the monthly record of 12.9 bcfd
in March 2022, before Freeport LNG shut.
    The seven big U.S. LNG export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG.

    SUPPLY AND DEMAND
    Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.6 bcfd so far in March, up from 98.1
bcfd in February. The monthly record is 99.9 bcfd in November 2022.
    Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April 13.
    With warmer spring-like weather expected to keep reducing the amount of gas burned to heat homes and businesses,
Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 110.6 bcfd this week to 104.1 bcfd next week
and 103.8 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday.
    Mild winter weather allowed utilities to leave more gas in storage so far this year and should let them start
injecting fuel into inventories at the beginning of April.
    Gas stockpiles were about 21% above their five-year average (2018-2022) during the week ended March 24 and were
expected to end about 20% above normal during the colder-than-normal week ended March 31, according to federal data
and analysts' estimates.

                                                        Week ended   Week ended   Year ago   Five-year
                                                          Mar 31       Mar 24      Mar 31     average
                                                        (Forecast)    (Actual)                 Mar 31
 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):                   -20         -47         -24          0
 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):                       1,833       1,853       1,387       1,532
 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average                  19.6%       21.0%


 Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)             Current Day  Prior Day   This Month  Prior Year   Five Year
                                                                                 Last Year    Average      Average
                                                                                                2022     (2018-2022)
 Henry Hub                                                 2.10         2.10        4.98        6.54        3.60
 Title Transfer Facility (TTF)                             14.38       13.92       41.81       40.50        14.39
 Japan Korea Marker (JKM)                                  12.70       12.54       36.96       34.11        14.31


 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total
 (TDD) Degree Days
 Two-Week Total Forecast                                Current Day  Prior Day   Prior Year   10-Year      30-Year
                                                                                                Norm        Norm
 U.S. GFS HDDs                                              191         193         235         211          195
 U.S. GFS CDDs                                              30           30          25          25          24
 U.S. GFS TDDs                                              221         223         260         236          219

 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
                                                        Prior Week    Current    Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                        Week                 Last Year   Average For
                                                                                                           Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production                                  98.5        99.0        99.0        94.6         89.4
 U.S. Imports from Canada                                       7.8         7.0         7.3         9.7          8.6
 U.S. LNG Imports                                               0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                                            106.2       106.0       106.3       104.3         99.1

 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                                         2.8         2.8         2.9         3.2          3.0
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                                         4.8         5.4         5.2         5.4          5.2
 U.S. LNG Exports                                              13.0        13.2        13.8        12.9          7.4
 U.S. Commercial                                               13.1        11.5         9.6        12.1         12.4
 U.S. Residential                                              20.6        17.7        14.0        18.1         19.6
 U.S. Power Plant                                              29.0        29.9        29.3        25.0         25.7
 U.S. Industrial                                               23.6        22.8        22.0        23.7         23.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                                                4.9         4.9         4.9         4.9          4.9
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                                         2.5         2.4         2.2         2.5          2.6
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                                              0.1         0.1         0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                                        93.7        89.2        82.1        86.4         88.9
 Total U.S. Demand                                            114.3       110.6       104.1       107.9        104.5


 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
                                                        Week ended   Week ended  Week ended  Week ended  Week ended
                                                          Mar 31       Mar 24      Mar 17      Mar 10       Mar 3
 Wind                                                       12           14          15          12          13
 Solar                                                       4           3           3           3            3
 Hydro                                                       7           7           7           7            7
 Other                                                       2           2           2           2            2
 Petroleum                                                   0           0           0           0            0
 Natural Gas                                                40           37          37          41          40
 Coal                                                       16           17          16          16          15
 Nuclear                                                    19           18          19          20          20

 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
 Hub                                                    Current Day  Prior Day
 Henry Hub 1.95        1.94
 Transco Z6 New York 1.68        1.93
 PG&E Citygate 7.10        7.18
 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.65        1.78
 Chicago Citygate 1.95        2.02
 Algonquin Citygate 2.03        2.55
 SoCal Citygate 8.38        9.34
 Waha Hub 1.54        1.51
 AECO 1.87        1.98

 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
 Hub                                                    Current Day  Prior Day
 New England 31.25       34.00
 PJM West 24.75       27.50
 Ercot North 21.00       18.00
 Mid C 66.00       66.00
 Palo Verde 40.00       40.00
 SP-15 49.25       49.25

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Sharon Singleton)